The NFC South is the only division in the NFL where the first-place team has a sub-.500 record. It’s also the only division where one game separates the top from the bottom.
So is the NFC South that good or that bad?
We’ll defer on that question.
One thing we do know is that there’s still plenty to play for in the division, and Monday night’s matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will go a long way toward figuring out which team will represent that division in the playoffs.
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Led by Hall-of-Famer-to-be Tom Brady, the Bucs are 5-6 and lead the NFC South over the Atlanta Falcons (5-7). The Carolina Panthers and the Saints are just behind, both with 4-8 records.
Tampa Bay beat New Orleans in Week 2, 20-10. The game was tied 3-3 heading into the fourth quarter.
Don’t expect too much more offense this time around, as both the Bucs and Saints are in the bottom half of the league in scoring, averaging 18.2 and 20.8 points per game, respectively.
Both teams are also in the bottom of the NFL against the spread. Tampa Bay is 3-7-1 ATS, including 0-4 at home. New Orleans is 4-8 against the spread and 0-5 on the road.
FrontPageBets takes a look at three best bets for Monday night’s game in Tampa, Fla. If you can stay awake for it.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings and subject to change.)
Buccaneers QB Tom Brady Over 272.5 passing yards (-115)
Despite the Bucs’ struggles, Brady is still one of the top quarterbacks in the league. He’s averaging 277.4 passing yards per game, which is sixth-best in the NFL. His 311 completions are second in the league, just one behind Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert.
Against the Saints in Week 2, Brady threw for just 190 yards, completing just 52.9% of his passes. Since then, he’s been more Brady-like, throwing for more than 250 yards in seven of the last nine games, including three 300-plus yard performances.
As long as he’s playing, Brady is a threat to carve up any defense.
Saints WR Chris Olave Over 56.5 receiving yards (-115)
As the top rookie receiver in the NFL, New Orleans wideout Chris Olave is 11th overall in receiving yardage with 822, which is a 74.7 yards-per-game average.
In seven out of 11 games, Olave has racked up more than 57 receiving yards, while recording three 10-plus yards games.
He’s Saints quarterback Andy Dalton’s top option, averaging 8.4 targets per game. Olave is the only New Orleans wide receiver who has more than 23 catches.
Buccaneers Under 22.5 points (-115)
Not only are the Bucs the sixth-worst scoring offense in the league (18.2 ppg), they’ve only scored more than 21 points twice this season. And both of those were losses -- to the Kansas City Chiefs, 41-31, in Week 4 and to the Baltimore Ravens, 27-22, in Week 8.
- When: 8:15 p.m., ESPN
- Spread: Buccaneers -4 (-110); Saints +4 (-110)
- Money line: Buccaneers -195; Saints +165
- Over/Under: 40.5 (-110)
- The pick: Buccaneers, 22-15
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Mike Szvetitz is the General Manager and Content Director for FrontPageBets.com. Szvetitz is a 22-year veteran reporter and editor, including serving 17 years as a sports editor in Florida, Alabama and Virginia, covering everything from preps to pros. His "View From The Lazy Boy" column won multiple state and national awards. He can be reached at mszvetitz@timesdispatch.com.